Three weeks out from Ironman Japan now, so let's talk swim strategy.
Target pace is around 10% under my CSS pace to account for open water and the distance - somewhere around 1:45/100m. That puts me in the 1:05 to 1:08 range for the swim, and anything quicker than that would be a very pleasant surprise.
Start position matters more than people think. I'll be seeding myself at the front of the 1:05-1:10 wave - a little optimistic, but it keeps me out of the worst of the congestion and gets me in with a group that's actually moving at my pace.
Like always, I'll go out easier for the first 100-200m rather than getting swept up and spiking my heart rate early, then settle into the pace I actually want to hold.
From there it's about finding a group early and drafting off them - over 3.8km, that adds up.
I am a bit concerned about rough conditions on the day, but I've swum through worse - Ireland, Wales, South Africa - so I'll just have to get on with whatever the water gives me.
Simple plan: controlled start, find my feet, don't blow up in the first few hundred metres. The swim is just the commute to the bike.
