Two weeks out from Ironman Japan now, so let's talk bike strategy.
My critical power came out at 223 watts during testing, with a W' - anaerobic reserve - of 12kJ. But Ironman pace isn't anywhere near that. Andy's got me targeting 160 to 180 watts for the ride, staying under threshold almost entirely.
That's comfortably below my threshold of 203 watts. It means I'm not touching that W' reserve unless I actually need it, then straight back down - and it's got to last the whole ride, which matters more than usual here because of the course.
It's just under 180km over three loops, and each loop has one sharp climb in it. So it's not one hill to survive - it's the same hill, three times, and I've got to ride it exactly the same way each time. Blow up on loop one, and loops two and three will make me pay for it.
The rest of it is rolling - nothing dramatic, but not flat either. Almost 3,000m of climbing over the day, so it adds up even without one big mountain.
We ran the numbers through Best Bike Split - my actual power data from previous races and training against the course and last year's conditions - and it came back with 4:50 to 5:00. Ambitious, and it assumes I hit those numbers cleanly, but it's a real target now, not just a guess.
Bike's not about being a hero here, especially not on the climbs. It's about riding that hill the same way three times, hitting somewhere close to that number, and still having legs for the run after.
